MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Sergey A. Mitsek, Elena B. MitsekYear: 2013
UDK: 330.101.541(075.8)
Pages: 32-59
Language: russian
Section: The optimization of Russia's Economy Management: finance, economic, mathematical and computer models
Keywords: еconometric model; parameter estimates; macroeconomic dynamics; multiples of exogenousvariables; monetary policy; fiscal policy.
Abstract
We consider an econometric model of macroeconomic dynamics of Russian economy. Based on quarterly
data for the years 1995–2011 we estimated parameters of the model equations by means of ordinary least
squares method since the model is fully recursive. With the help of the estimated parameters multipliers
of exogenous variables were obtained, as well as different forecast variants for the Russian economy
under different scenarios of the dynamics of export and import prices, and fiscal and monetary policy.
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