MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Sergey A. Mitsek –Doctor of Economics, Dean of Business and Management Department, Liberal Arts University/University for Humanities, Еkaterinburg., Elena B. Mitsek –Doctor of Economics, Head of Management and Marketing Chair, Business and Management Department, Liberal Arts University/University for Humanities, Еkaterinburg.
Year: 2013
DOI:
UDK: 330.101.541(075.8)
Pages: 32-59
Language: russian
Section: The optimization of Russia's Economy Management: finance, economic, mathematical and computer models
Keywords: еconometric model; parameter estimates; macroeconomic dynamics; multiples of exogenousvariables; monetary policy; fiscal policy.
Abstract
We consider an econometric model of macroeconomic dynamics of Russian economy. Based on quarterly data for the years 1995–2011 we estimated parameters of the model equations by means of ordinary least squares method since the model is fully recursive. With the help of the estimated parameters multipliers of exogenous variables were obtained, as well as different forecast variants for the Russian economy under different scenarios of the dynamics of export and import prices, and fiscal and monetary policy.
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