Russia’s Economic Development: the Study of Current Trends Based on Structural Equations of Econometric Model

Importance. The current state of Russia's economic growth makes it necessary to forecast basic macroeconomic indicators for the near future, as well as to determine the impact of internal and external factors on the pace and dynamics of Russian economic growth. The article presents the results of the analysis following from the estimates of equations of the econometric model which allow determining the influence of the structure of Russian economy on the rates of economic growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables. Objectives. The goal of the authors was to determine the degree of influence of economic policy instruments and of external factors on the growth rates and on the macroeconomic dynamics of Russian economy. Methods. In this paper long-term elasticity of dependent variables with respect to independent ones were calculated on the basis of the equations’ estimated parameters and chosen specifications, and the most influential variables were selected as a result. Based on the calculated elasticity the main factors that influenced the dynamics of dependent variables were analyzed. Results. Calculations made on the basis of the estimated equations make it possible to understand the reasons of the changes in the growth rates of Russian economy. These reasons include stagnation of total factor productivity, lack of liquidity and reduction in public investment, a slowdown in the pace of the global economy, and Russia's strong dependence on imports. Conclusions and Relevance. The calculations reflect the high degree of dependence of Russian economy on demographic factors, the significant role of the state, the weakening of the influence of external factors and strengthening of the role of internal ones in determining its macroeconomic trends. Its main problems are the stagnation of total factor productivity and the inadequate level of investment in fixed assets, which preserves the high degree of labor intensity of Russian economy.