An econometric model of the Russian Federation, version 2019: the main results

The article presents the results of the current version of the authors' econometric model of the Russian economy, the parameters of which were estimated based on quarterly data from 1999– 2018. The model shows the ongoing stagnation of total factor productivity, the strong dependence of the Russian economy on demographic and international factors, and low efficiency of fiscal and monetary policies. The model also showed a stronger dependence of Russian inflation on fiscal rather than monetary factors, and a lack of liquidity, as a constraint on investment. Based on the model, the forecast of the Russian economy for 2019 – 2022 was obtained. In the base variant, it shows relatively low GDP growth rates (1–2% per year) with low inflation (3–4% per year). A noticeable acceleration of growth rates is possible only with a sharp increase in export prices, which is unlikely to happen soon. Therefore, the main focus of the economic policy of the coming years should be to increase the total factor productivity by creating a favorable investment climate and increasing investments in science and education.