An Econometric Model of the Russian Federation (Version of the Year 2020): Estimates, Forecasts, Analysis

The article presents the results of the next version of the author's econometric model of the Russian economy, the parameters of which were estimated based on the quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. The model shows the continuing stagnation of total factor productivity, the strong dependence of the Russian economy on demographic and international factors, and insufficient fiscal and monetary policies. The forecast of the Russian economy for the years of 2020–2023 built on the model in the baseline outlook demonstrates the GDP growth rate equal to -0,5% per year, while inflation will be 3–4% per year. Nevertheless, a noticeable acceleration of growth rates is possible only at higher (3% per year) growth rates of the world economy, represented in the model by the aggregate GDP of the OECD countries. These results do not take into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (which will change these results for the worse in both the global economy and the Russian economy), but they can provide a useful picture of the development of the Russian economy after the world has dealt with the aftermath of the pandemic.