Basic Characteristics of the Econometric Model of the Russian Economy in the Year of 2020

The paper describes the results of the 2020 version of the authorial econometric model of the Russian economy. The authors upgraded the previous version of the model by including new variables and changing the specification of equations. They also re-estimated it according to the new data. The model analyzes and explains current trends in the Russian economy and forecasts its dynamics. Besides, it calculates such macroeconomic indicators as gross domestic product, different indicators such as inflation, investment, export and import volumes, households’ incomes and consumption, etc. The model showed that if all exogenous variables (export and import prices, the monetary base and economically active population, etc.) have the same dynamics as in the previous four years (even in the absence of COVID-19), the average annual growth rate of the Russian economy for the next four years will be about 0%, while the inflation rate will make up about 3–4% annually. The Russian economy can have a significant growth rate only when the world economy grows rapidly. The model showed a strong dependence of the Russian economy on demographic and international factors. But the role of fiscal and monetary policy is weak.