Econometric Estimates of the Ruble against the Dollar Exchange Rate

The article explores the results of an econometric estimation of the ruble-dollar exchange rates based on the quarterly data for the period 1999-2021. The methods of estimation were OLS and ML-ARCH. The calculated elasticities of the dependent variable on the main arguments allowed for making a number of conclusions. The world prices for export and import goods, inflation in the United States and OECD GDP played a significant role in determining the ruble’s exchange rate against the dollar until 2013, and after this year, their influence was noticeably weaker. Among the internal economic factors the number of economically active population had the strongest influence on the ruble exchange rate. GDP growth also strengthened the ruble, but this influence was not so strong. An increase in the share of consumer spending and investment in fixed assets in GDP weakened the ruble, reflecting the strong dependence of these expenditures on imports. At the same time, the growth of public procurement strengthened the ruble, since this means turning primarily to domestic producers. The volume of money supply was the only factor whose influence on the ruble was steadily growing. A restrictive monetary policy and active fiscal policy will contribute to strengthen the ruble in the near future. But the fall in Russia’s GDP, expected in 2022, will weaken it. The authors also made a brief overview of theoretical and applied works devoted to the determination of exchange rates.