Econometric Estimates and Structural Analysis of Russia’s Economic Dynamics (2000–2021): General Description of the Model and Equations of the Production Unit

This article is the first part of a series of publications that present the results of the author’s econometric model of the Russian economy in version 2022. This article provides, firstly, a general description of the model and methods of its parameters estimating. The model consists of 84 relations, which include 24 equations and 60 identities and describe the relationship between 107 variables, of which 23 are exogenous. Exogenous variables represent elements of monetary and fiscal policy. Endogenous variables are grouped into units – production, prices, investments, banking variables and variables of the world economy, monetary and fiscal. The model parameters were estimated based on quarterly data for 1999-2021. The evaluation methods were the OLS and the ML – ARCH. Secondly, this article contains the macroeconomic analysis and econometric estimates of the production unit of the model. The latter includes the macroeconomic production function, the equations of the factors of production dynamics and some other relations. The analysis and assessments carried out showed a high degree of labor intensity of the Russian economy, a drop in total factor productivity in recent years, its strong dependence on external demand, liquidity and some other factors. The slowdown in economic growth is exacerbated by low elasticity of fixed capital and the dependence of labor resources mainly on demographic factors.