Coherence of Agribusiness Climate Strategy with Other Sectors: a Methodological Approach

The paper proposes an economic and mathematical model in the form of a fractional linear programming problem based on data from the Russian symmetric table “Costs-Output”, the table of the use of goods and services, and Rosstat data on greenhouse gas to determine the optimal trajectories of gross outputs growth (in the context of a given nomenclature of economic activities), which would ensure the feasibility of the set goals of the strategy of adaptation of the agro-industrial complex to climate change and strengthen the policy of reducing the anthropogenic impact on the climate. The model calculates the increase in gross output that is required for the strategy to be implemented. The strategy is feasible if all these increases are within capacity reserves or if sufficient capital investment is available for capacity increases. Characteristics of the proposed approach, which differ from previous solutions to similar problems, are: adaptation of the mathematical model to the empirical base available in Russia; maximization of the share of the final use in gross output; achievement of realistic solutions to the model by applying instrumental methods of market analysis to consistently supplement the model with restrictions on the growth of the final use of certain types of products; the principle of assessing the shortage of working capital caused (ceteris paribus) by the implementation of the strategy. The results obtained allow for further elaboration in relation to developing strategies aimed at adapting other branches of material production to the same factors. Rosstat has been advised to publish data on greenhouse gas emissions in compliance with the nomenclature of economic activities used for Russia’s basic input-output tables.