Econometric Estimates and Structural Analysis of Russia’s Economic Dynamics (2000–2021): Structural Analysis of the Equations and Identities of the Production Unit

The structural analysis of the production block of the model for 2000-2021 is the second article in the series of publications presenting the results of the next estimation of the author’s econometric model. The analysis of the investment process in Russia showed its insufficient activity in comparison with the OECD and BRICS countries, which makes it difficult to reduce the gap in the living standards of Russian citizens in comparison with richer countries. Calculations of the fixed capital structure reflect its weak social orientation (low share of housing) relative to many countries. Sectoral and regional analysis showed a strong unevenness in growth of fixed capital by type of economic activity and subjects of the federation. So, in the period up to 2017, its main recipients were primarily metropolitan and oil-and-gas regions. The share of agriculture and manufacturing as well as education noticeably decreased in the employment structure, but it grew in trade and construction. The estimates indicated a gradual strengthening of the negative correlation between employment and labor productivity growth, which can be considered as one of the signs of a general decline in the efficiency of the economy. The authors calculated the growth of output, aggregate resources and aggregate productivity which demonstrated a strong unevenness in growth of these indicators by types of economic activity and regions of Russia. They reflected a general slowdown in the growth of aggregate productivity after 2016 and an increase in the negative correlation between its rate and the rate of resource allocation both by industry and region. This result reflects the inefficiency of resource allocation in the sectoral and regional structure of the Russian economy.