Econometric Estimates and Structural Analysis of the Economic Dynamics of Russia (2000-2021): Production Unit in Current Prices and the Price Block of the Model

The third section of the article presents the findings of the author’s econometric analysis, which comprises two sections. In the first of them, the indicators of the production unit of the model are analyzed at current prices. These include the return on fixed capital and gross value added per employee in macroeconomic, sectoral and regional terms. Their dynamics, as well as the industry and regional variance are of interest. The latter two allow us to understand at least partially how factors of production are allocated in the economy and to explain at least partially the dynamics of macroeconomic total factor productivity, which we can then fix at the primary level. The authors have recorded a fairly high variation of these indicators by industry and region, which partly explains the stagnation of total productivity. The second section analyzes the indicators and the results of econometric estimation of the price unit of the model variables. The factors that have the greatest impact on the Russian economy’s price deflator dynamics have been identified, enabling a clear explanation of inflation trends over the past period. The authors record the multiplicity of factors determining Russian inflation. The results obtained help to explain the reasons for the slowdown in inflation in the period up to 2014 and the decline in the pace of these processes in the subsequent period.