Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis, Econometric Estimates of Russia’s Economic Dynamics (2000-2021): Equations and Identities of the Social Unit

This article is the fourth in a series of publications presenting the results of the macroeconomic econometric model. It describes the results of the estimation of the equations and identities of its social block. The equation of the average wages shows its dependence on the net marginal product of labor, the number of economically active population, the bank loans to business and some other variables. This article examines the relationship between the average wage level and the company’s equilibrium condition. The reasons for the decline in the proportion of wages in gross domestic product (GDP) are explained, and a comparison is made with the situation in other countries. The variation of the average wages by types of economic activity and regions of Russia, its influence on the allocation of labor resources, as well as its dependence on labor productivity is studied. Further, the article examines the dynamics of real disposable incomes of Russian citizens. The reasons for the slowdown in their growth in recent years are investigated. It is shown that their dynamics is very sensitive both to the fiscal policy and to the state of the world economy. The authors demonstrate that consumer spending by Russian households depends primarily on their disposable income, while the role of loans is relatively weak, and the expenditures themselves are very sensitive to fiscal policy. The data indicates that the share of consumer spending in GDP for Russia almost coincides with the global average. A regional analysis reveals their higher share in the gross regional product of poor regions.