Digital Technologies for Land Use Scenario Analysis in Field Farming: A Reflection on Experience

Using the example of digitalization in projects for the technological modernization of crop production, the paper argues that the development of digital technologies typically yields the greatest impact when it is tied to more advanced methods of processing datasets – methods that are better suited to the specific applied task at hand. These datasets are either created beforehand or updated using previously established procedures. The paper sets out two digital modeling tasks. These are designed to utilize sets of technological and geographical data composed during the technical and economic justification of large-scale crop production projects. The first task is the allocation of land plots to specific crop production technologies. The second is scenario-based forecasting of the outcomes of prospective crop production projects. Drawing on the experience of applying these digital models, the paper explains how their results can be used not only directly in project development or in forecasting the expansion of these projects to larger territories, but also for analyzing agricultural policy, including its ecological and climatic aspects. Specifically, the models help substantiate conclusions about the low technological readiness of domestic crop production to address challenges posed by the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the predominance of emission reduction potential tied to lowering the application rates of nitrogen-containing mineral fertilizers. The potential practical significance of the research presented in the article lies in the need to adjust the paradigm of digitalization in the national economy, taking into account the specific manifestations of the law of requisite variety under the unique conditions of the emerging sixth technological paradigm.